Thread: Polls (and sites like fiverthirtyeight) are not certain

Originally Posted by Red_Lizard2

Struggled to get a title, but wanted to post a great piece from one of those places you'd always go for your political op-eds and news...Deadspin (yeah, bit weird). It does use sports in there, but in general its about the attacks on sites like fivethirtyeight and people like Silver, and the why (sort of).

Anyways figured it was a good read, though as always I'm sure some will ignore anything said because well, its politics:

Deadspin.com Updates: Nate Silver's Braying Idiot Detractors Show That Being Ignorant About Politics Is Like Being Ignorant About Sports

Good stuff. Thanks.

I've seen a couple good pieces on polls (and now I've seen one more), but most of what I see/read is breathtakingly stupid.

I wish that the people who write articles and talk on TV understood Endogeneity. Not the word, but the concept. (it's a completely Poindexter McSmartypants word - and it's not my fault that someone taught it to me).

I think there's something else going on, and it has to do with us. Some of us vote for who we want based on what we think is good/right/etc. We make a conscious decision based on our (flawed) analysis of the choices.

But some of us decide what we want based on what we think other people want. These people like winners. They want to be a winner. On November 7th, they want to be able to celebrate with the winners.

So the perception of being in the lead - or at least being competitive - is crucial to any campaign. It doesn't surprise me at all that the major campaigns attack polls that show them behind. They need to maintain the air of Winning.

This would be an interesting poll: ask people who voted in 2004 who they voted for. My guess is that the poll would show Kerry with a much bigger margin of losing than actually happened.

Cheers,


AetheLove

Good article. People who hate on analysts like Nate are people who either don't like what his model is showing, like conservatives, or who benefit more from a tossup narrative, like the media.

To follow through with the sports reference, Silver has said Obama's lead now is like a NFL team having a 3 point lead in the fourth quarter at the two-minute warning. It's not a certain victory, but the odds are greatly in your favor and you'd definitely rather be the team with the lead.