Thread: Evidence that Global Warming is real....Short term evidence

Oh really? How so? They are able to recreate and plot tsunamis and what caused them. Indeed, they were able to predict 15 minutes out or so, that the giant tsunami of 2007 I believe it was, was going on the course it did. Was the warning time small as hell and effective? yeah, and not that effective. Certainly a leap forward from when Tsunamis came out of the blue and had no idea. Or for that matter, tornado predictions. We can warn of a Tornado formation 15 minutes out. Yet, only 20 years ago, we could barely reach a minute's warning. As far as the surface of the sun, its more the sun's effect on atmospherics as opposed to the sun itself. That's NASA's department.

Yeah that is right. Lets look at predict and plot tsunamis. The only reason they can do either is because of plate movement in the shape of an earth quake that happened. Of which was not predicted. So they arent predicting a tsunami they are giving after effects. Very similar to if i smack water i can predict which way the waves are going to go.

Yes we can predict to a degree tornados or rather a storm that is capable of making them but the prediction of the tornado itself is still out of our realm. We can tell when one is forming but not before hand nor where it will be not how strong it will be and not where it will be going.

As for the sun that not what they said.

"NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources."

What they said is they understand and are capable of predicting changes to the surface of the sun. Basically they put their foot in their mouth because someone is way over stating their actual abilities.

Before its even mentioned ill bring up hurricanes. They cant predict the storm itself and have an almost 0 record of an actual plotted course being correct. Sure they modify tracks as they are changing but they never have it correct right off the bat. You want an actual hurricane plot in the atlantic? Get a person that has lived in hurricane alley for a while to tell you where its going to go. Let me tell you as someone who has lived in florida at different times since 1980 for a total of about 20 years the predictions blow and that guy everyone likes to make fun of in the trailor park can guess the track better then the hurricane center. I wish i was joking about that but it is reality.

Right, but plate tectonics as a sound geological theory has only been accepted in the past 40 years or so. But as far as predicting effects, its all an interconnected system so it is a continual, ever changing, cascade of events with various inputs.

We cannot tell before hand if a storm will absolutely spawn a tornado due to the strict definition of the various stages of a Tornado's genesis. Take your typical mid-latitude cyclone (any kind of storm that occurs in the middle latitudes) for example. Based on the strength of upper air wind speeds, we know that it is or it isnt capable of spawning a tornado. I believe there is general thresh hold that puts a storm in the category that it has the potential to make a tornado. If the upper wind speeds are fast enough, it can create wind sheer and start to cause rotation within the cloud. AS SOON AS Doppler RADAR indicates rotational movement, a tornado warning is issued. So as a result, there is bit of a grey area in terms of whether or not the storm WILL, or MAY do, however, the delimitation are relatively clear to those who study it. A warning indicates that the aforementioned phenomena is being observed, or the chances are extremely likely, such with rotational movement in a storm cloud and spawning tornadoes. As far as where it will be, that is dependent upon again, upper air directions. Where ever the jet stream is, the storm will likely flow in its general direction. We are as accurate as far down as the county, and sometimes township level, which is pretty damn good if you ask me considering your predicting a mass with wind speeds in excess frequently of 125+ mph.

*sigh* stupid grammar of the English language. Why must you be so confusing?!?!

"NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources."

Emphasis added on critical components of sentence in question. The first part, can be a sentence on its own. "NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment." The last two clauses are dependent upon the first since they cannot be considered a sentence since they are missing a subject or a verb. These clauses are additional descriptors to the independent clause that is "NOAA understands...environment". With that being said, the clause "from the depths...to the sun" is describing the inputs to Earth's environment. Indeed, all levels of the oceans and sun activity play a critical role in shaping Earth's environment. NOAA isnt saying they know what goes on at the depths of the oceans or what happens on the surface of the sun. They are saying they know HOW those inputs affect their particular area of study, speaking to their wide range of experience and knowledge base.

Originally Posted by deathgodusmc

Before its even mentioned ill bring up hurricanes. They cant predict the storm itself and have an almost 0 record of an actual plotted course being correct. Sure they modify tracks as they are changing but they never have it correct right off the bat. You want an actual hurricane plot in the atlantic? Get a person that has lived in hurricane alley for a while to tell you where its going to go. Let me tell you as someone who has lived in florida at different times since 1980 for a total of about 20 years the predictions blow and that guy everyone likes to make fun of in the trailor park can guess the track better then the hurricane center. I wish i was joking about that but it is reality.

What do you mean cant predict the storm itself? We track hurricanes WEEKS before they hit US territorial waters. Weeks. They track EVERY single tropical disturbance that comes off of the African content (thats where the actual formation begins). Those lines are nothing more than predictions for the path of the eye itself. Cyclones are huge fucking storms, that go out and affect a huge swath of area, far that exceeds the width of the line. All the different lines that you see are different predictions spit out by various models of the cyclone in question. They take the average of all the different runs, giving weight to statistically more accurate models, and that is the projected path. So as a result, even though the fore-casted path, as defined by the thin colored line, maybe a hundred miles away from you, if the storm is 75 miles wide or more, which is quite common in cyclones, your going to be feeling the effects.

Originally Posted by Potemkine

What do you mean cant predict the storm itself? We track hurricanes WEEKS before they hit US territorial waters. Weeks. They track EVERY single tropical disturbance that comes off of the African content (thats where the actual formation begins). Those lines are nothing more than predictions for the path of the eye itself. Cyclones are huge fucking storms, that go out and affect a huge swath of area, far that exceeds the width of the line. All the different lines that you see are different predictions spit out by various models of the cyclone in question. They take the average of all the different runs, giving weight to statistically more accurate models, and that is the projected path. So as a result, even though the fore-casted path, as defined by the thin colored line, maybe a hundred miles away from you, if the storm is 75 miles wide or more, which is quite common in cyclones, your going to be feeling the effects.

I dont really need the info you provided. I know what they are attempting to do. What i said is they are clueless on what the actual track will be. Yet i know people that get it right every time and i dont do so bad myself with giving it before the thing is any where near the US. Their track record sucks and will continue to suck because they think they are good at it.

Originally Posted by Potemkine

Emphasis added on critical components of sentence in question. The first part, can be a sentence on its own. "NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment." The last two clauses are dependent upon the first since they cannot be considered a sentence since they are missing a subject or a verb. These clauses are additional descriptors to the independent clause that is "NOAA understands...environment". With that being said, the clause "from the depths...to the sun" is describing the inputs to Earth's environment. Indeed, all levels of the oceans and sun activity play a critical role in shaping Earth's environment. NOAA isnt saying they know what goes on at the depths of the oceans or what happens on the surface of the sun. They are saying they know HOW those inputs affect their particular area of study, speaking to their wide range of experience and knowledge base.

You do know im just busting your balls on this right? lol