Thread: Election autopsy

In order to leave red's post on topic, I am starting a new one.

What is your impression of the recent election and what it meant.

There are several dimensions to this, IMO. When I see Nancy Pelosi lining up to stay in a leadership role, and Obama telling the media that they failed to communicate their message, that is what leads me to say the Democrats miss the writing on the wall. It seems to me that the Democrats are preparing to serve up more of the same. I welcome it, as I long to see the agenda delivered over the past two years defunded, and shelved.

I don't think that the Repugs have a coherent plan at this point, although I like the idea of holding the debt ceiling raise hostage in order to initiate spending cuts. I will judge the merits of their ideas once they are unveiled.

Obama projected unemployment to stay below 8% with the massive spending bill. That plan failed. Lost credibility was punished. Message one.

Focusing on the health care takeover instead of the economy, producing an unpopular bill, and blowing off the feedback, even mocking the outpouring of anger, writing it off as AstroTurf. It is my opinion that this is the second message that is being missed.

The last slice of this deals with a conversation I was having with Fovezer. My opinion is that this election put representation back where it would typically be after Bush and his republican congress pissed off the silent majority with their screw ups.

Fovezer brought up a countering view point that the repugs took over because democrats did not show up to support the moderate democrats. I would think that the primary process should have snuffed out the blue dogs and sent more suitable liberal candidates if it were possible to carry those districts by supporting the agenda of Obama. Am I mistaken there?

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

In order to leave red's post on topic, I am starting a new one.

What is your impression of the recent election and what it meant.

There are several dimensions to this, IMO. When I see Nancy Pelosi lining up to stay in a leadership role, and Obama telling the media that they failed to communicate their message, that is what leads me to say the Democrats miss the writing on the wall. It seems to me that the Democrats are preparing to serve up more of the same. I welcome it, as I long to see the agenda delivered over the past two years defunded, and shelved.

I disagree on all counts here. Pelosi, like her or hate her, was able to whip the caucus to get things passed. She was effective. Reid, on the other hand, was weak. I do think they failed to really communicate their message, because how many people know the stimulus bill was also one of the largest tax cuts ever passed? How many believe there are "death panels" in the health care bill? So yes, they never communicated a strong message. Also, they insisted on beginning debates on health care and the stimulus from the center and moving it to the right to get votes, instead of starting on the left and moving to the center, so many liberals were kind of "blah" about everything and not really gung-ho about getting out the vote. And I think we both know there is not a chance in hell anything gets defunded unless the Republicans are ready to commit political suicide.

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

I don't think that the Repugs have a coherent plan at this point, although I like the idea of holding the debt ceiling raise hostage in order to initiate spending cuts. I will judge the merits of their ideas once they are unveiled.

But they won't. Hell, they don't even know what they want to cut. I've seen interview after interview with these Republicans asked what specifically would they cut, and they can never say anything substantive.

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

Obama projected unemployment to stay below 8% with the massive spending bill. That plan failed. Lost credibility was punished. Message one.

That was because the economy was in worse shape than we thought, so the predictions were low. The bill was not the reason for the worsening economy, and this attack is extremely dishonest.

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

Focusing on the health care takeover instead of the economy, producing an unpopular bill, and blowing off the feedback, even mocking the outpouring of anger, writing it off as AstroTurf. It is my opinion that this is the second message that is being missed.

Yep, when 70%+ want a public option and a large percentage said the bill didn't go far enough, they probably missed that message.

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

The last slice of this deals with a conversation I was having with Fovezer. My opinion is that this election put representation back where it would typically be after Bush and his republican congress pissed off the silent majority with their screw ups.

Fovezer brought up a countering view point that the repugs took over because democrats did not show up to support the moderate democrats. I would think that the primary process should have snuffed out the blue dogs and sent more suitable liberal candidates if it were possible to carry those districts by supporting the agenda of Obama. Am I mistaken there?

My view wasn't that Democrats didn't show up to support the Blue Dogs, but that the Blue Dogs didn't show up to support Democratic policies. In the Senate, for example, Blanche Lincoln was one of the right-wing Democrats that helped to massively water down the bill. How did that turn out for her? The same for all the Blue Dogs who lost. My point was that running away from Democratic policies or trying to distance yourself from the President is not going to help you, it will only hurt you. Republican voters aren't going to vote for you, conservative-leaning independents aren't going to vote for you, and you going to depress the base Democratic vote because they see no reason to come out and vote for a Republican wannabe.

This is my analysis of the election:
The Republicans ran on "No." That is, they had no real plans, no real ideas, they just said no to everything the Democrats did and tried to obstruct any way possible. I mean, hell, they even put out a budget that had no numbers! They then ran on repealing stuff, cutting spending, etc., and that rallied the base. Take into account a still sluggish economy and a historically whiter, older, conservative electorate during midterm elections to go along with the enthusiasm gap, and the results are not surprising.

Based on this, I do not think 2012 bodes well for the Republicans. As the majority party in the House, they are going to have to actually put forward substantive policies. They can't just say "no" anymore. They aren't going to cut spending like the tea party wants, they aren't going to repeal or defund health care reform, and they will probably have to vote to increase the debt ceiling. So, the base won't be happy, and if they try something as crazy as a government shutdown, they will face backlash from independents. This will mean a disenchanted Republican base, and I can see the tea party phenomenon dissipating by 2012 anyways. And in 2012, with a more diverse electorate and higher turnout in combination with an improved economy, I can see the Democrats regaining the majority. If the GOP is dumb enough to nominate someone like Palin for President, it will be a blowout.

Originally Posted by Gumby

Until jobs really start to pick up, every election from this point on is likely to go poorly for any incumbents. Red, Blue, Left, Right, it will not matter as long as this "jobless recovery" continues, incumbents are all in danger. Everything else is small potatoes when you are worried about whether or not you will continue to have a paycheck.

Precisely. Mid term elections are always not so good for the incumbents and the party in power. Especially when the numbers are where they are.

Originally Posted by Gumby

Until jobs really start to pick up, every election from this point on is likely to go poorly for any incumbents. Red, Blue, Left, Right, it will not matter as long as this "jobless recovery" continues, incumbents are all in danger. Everything else is small potatoes when you are worried about whether or not you will continue to have a paycheck.

Google - public data

I predict a solid drop in unemployment over the next year. The numbers have already flattened out and begun to drop.

Originally Posted by hawgballs

Precisely. Mid term elections are always not so good for the incumbents and the party in power. Especially when the numbers are where they are.

If this were an anti incumbent election cycle, then the percentage of Republican incumbent losses should be about on par with the percentage of Democratic incumbent losses. It wasn't even close.

RealClearPolitics - An Anti-Democratic Year

Originally Posted by Muqtar SGT_Clintok

If this were an anti incumbent election cycle, then the percentage of Republican incumbent losses should be about on par with the percentage of Democratic incumbent losses. It wasn't even close.

RealClearPolitics - An Anti-Democratic Year

Okay. let me fix that for you....

Originally Posted by hawgballs

Precisely. Mid term elections are always not so good for the incumbents and the party in power. Especially when the numbers are where they are.

Better?