MOVED: Crysis

**AzH** · 10-24-06, 02:39 PM

Success in Iraq possible, say US officials

The top US officials in Baghdad on Tuesday said Iraqi forces should be â??completely capableâ? of taking responsibility for security in the country within about 18 months, as Republican support for the war continues to erode just two weeks ahead of Novemberâ??s congressional elections.

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In a rare joint press conference, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador, and General George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq, delivered a unified message: that despite the images of daily carnage in Baghdad, success was still possible.

Gen Casey, who originally hoped to reduce US forces to about 100,000 from 140,000 by the end of this year, said Iraqi forces should be able to take full control of security in the country within the next 12 to 18 months with minimal American support.

Reflecting increased pessimism among Republicans that the Iraq war would cost them control of one or both houses of Congress, the White House on Monday said President George W. Bush would no longer use the phrase â??stay the courseâ?.

In an attempt to bolster moribund support among the American public â?? as October shapes up to be one of the worst months in Iraq for US military deaths â?? Mr Khalilzad said the Iraqi leaders had agreed to develop a timeline of progress on both security and economic issues, including changes to the constitution, disbanding militias and agreeing a new hydrocarbons law.

â??They have committed themselves to a timetable for making some of those decisions,â? said Mr Khalilzad, adding that he expected significant progress in the coming 12 months.

Gen Casey dismissed suggestions that Iraq had descended into civil war, insisting that 80 to 90 per cent of the sectarian violence happened in a 30-mile radius of the centre of Baghdad. But reflecting the escalating chaos in the capital, he acknowledged that he may need to ask for more troops to control the city.

The attempt to win back the debate over Iraq comes as the loss of faith in the war reached new highs among the American and British public. A recent CNN poll found that a record 64 per cent of Americans now oppose the conflict.

Officials and analysts in the Middle East have been warning for months that Iraq has been gradually sliding into an uncontrollable civil war, as killings by Shia militias escalate at a faster pace than attacks by Sunni insurgents. Last week, Iraqi Shia and Sunni clerics were invited to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia to sign a declaration forbidding the shedding of Muslim blood.

The White House has been increasingly forced onto the back foot over Iraq since John Warner, the Republican chairman of the Senate armed services committee who has been a strong backer of the administration, recently said the situation in Iraq was going â??sidewaysâ? before warning last weekend that the violence was getting worse.

Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican senator and strong supporter of the war, on Tuesday added to the White House woes, saying: â??Weâ??re on the verge of chaos, and the current plan is not working.â?

Mr Graham said Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, and the US generals needed to come up with a new plan.

James Baker, the former secretary of state and Bush family confidante who is leading a bipartisan commission on US policy in Iraq, recently prompted speculation that the White House would gradually move towards a new policy by suggesting that â??stay the courseâ? and â??cut and runâ? were not the only two options for Iraq.

The growing doubts about Iraq policy were also aggravated by revelations that the US was increasingly frustrated by the performance of the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki, which had failed to follow through on moves towards national reconciliation with the Sunni minority and was resisting tough action against the Shia militias.

One thing jumped out at me in this article:

Iraqi forces should be able to take full control of security in the country within the next 12 to 18 months with minimal American support.

Do you think that is possible? All news reports seem to be pointing to an escalation in violence in Iraq so I don't know if I can believe this claim or not. What are your thoughts? Is Iraq capable of handling her own security in just 18 months or will be see a strong US presence in Iraq for years to come?

**Hfx-Rebel** · 10-24-06, 02:59 PM

I'd like to see it before I beleive it...The Iraqis depend to much on the Yanks, as they supply an element of stability in the country...As they can't just pack up and leave, it'll be a long drawn out process in which they reduce their numbers over time. When (if) they do pull out, I can see a civil war happening, as the ones that benefitted from Saddams reighn will want to go back to the glory days.

**Giovanni Fascisti** · 10-24-06, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by AzH

Do you think that is possible? All news reports seem to be pointing to an escalation in violence in Iraq so I don't know if I can believe this claim or not. What are your thoughts? Is Iraq capable of handling her own security in just 18 months or will be see a strong US presence in Iraq for years to come?[/FONT]

In a way, the current Iraq situation resembles pre-1975 Lebanon. Only on a much more massive scale.

I am not claiming that civil war is entirely unavoidable at this point, but (assuming that the current slaughter is not yet a de facto civil war, which I guess is debatable) it does appear to be lurking right around the corner.

Without a powerful military presence, that is to say, anything other than the New Iraqi Army, a bloody civil war could very much be the outcome of this whole venture.

But if the Iraqi Army is “completely capable of taking responsibility for security in the country ” within 18 months, then I’m the Caliph of Baghdad. I really doubt it could handle any major sectarian crisis on its own without breaking into splinters.

At least it will be unable to handle it unless it metamorphs into the tool of oppression Saddam’s old Republican Guard was.

**Jill** · 10-24-06, 06:05 PM

I honestly don't think the war in Iraq is winnable.

There has been over 500 suicide bombings this year alone. There are so many young Muslim fanatics that are willing to kill themselves. The number of sympathisers grow each day. They provide money, explosives, safe houses, vehicles..you name it.

These bombers have paralized Bagdad. Targets are being hit again and again.

The so called police 12 thousand commandos that are suppose to be ready will never be ready it seems. If you train for 3 years for something and still can't do it...most likely it will never happen.

The new government that rarely steps out of the green zone is a joke too. They can't seem to make any decisions.

You just have too many muslim factions that hated each other for centuries. They don't want to change or have a democracy. I'm sure if they had real true elections in Iraq today....they would vote in a government like Iran has right now.

The USA claims they are winning the battle ...but in reality..they are losing the war. It is another Vietnam.

**imported_Exile** · 10-25-06, 03:02 AM

Not possible, no. They cannot be sure that there wont be more violence. I think that is could be possilbe that the violence will escalate into another war.

**lightclone** · 11-01-06, 04:16 AM

You see, their version of 'success' differs a lot from mine.

**mentalmagic** · 11-01-06, 10:25 AM

I don't think Iraq would be able to cope on its own without US support. The country is simply too divided, perhaps a staggered withdrawal over time would work. But certainly they will have to stay for a while longer.