Thread: Empire decline?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36013573/

i read this this morning and have to say... i'm inclined to agree. there does seem to be a trend in which sovereign states expand, peak and contract. contraction is generally defined by a peak and subsequent events leading to decline. some of those hallmark indicators are found in the socialization of civil inefficiences that are unsolvable by the private sector.

the author clearly notes britain's decline, but rome's decline would have to be even more famous (or infamous). panem et circensus?

btw - i haven't read the boook, but the author also seems to think highly of china, which we all should. i think the biggest wildcard here is that expansion historically has been marked by physical aggression... which in the nuclear age is a very, very tricky thing. we humans really do break new ground every day!

where is carl sagan's tiny blue dot thing when you need it?



The passage of the health care law shows that the US empire is declining because it illustrates the fact that people expect the state to take care of them, David Murrin, the co-founder of Emergent Asset Management hedge fund manager, told CNBC.

On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama signed into law health care legislation that expands health coverage for the poor, imposes new taxes on the rich and forbids insurance practices such as refusing coverage to those with pre-existing conditions.

In their expansionary phase, empires force people to go out, seek risks and fend for themselves, Murrin said, reminding of the dismantling of the British empire after the war, when the National Health Service, which ensures universal health coverage in Britain, was created.

"This (empire decline) is actually a dead-set course that societies get into and it will happen very quickly I'm afraid," he told "Squawk Box Europe."

"As you start to build a system it becomes cohesive because of its success… the fractures in the American system I think are more apparent than ever," Murrin added.

China's rise will be much faster than most people anticipate as the country's military prowess increases, he said.

"We all know there's going to be a change, the surprise will be the pace of that change," Murrin said, noting that "all empires when they decline they underestimate their challengers."

The peak for commodities will be reached somewhere between 2020 and 2025 and it's the period before that that must be watched, as China seems much more willing to take risks than Western countries, he predicted.

"You have a lot more males in China then you do in the west," he said, noting that 56 percent of the Chinese society was male, because of the country's policies to control population and because of traditions which value males more than females.

"What that means is that they're far more risk-oriented than a society in the West…if you look at conflict and your ability to risk your males in conflict," Murrin explained.

China has started to innovate and has worked out what the West's weaknesses are so it can overtake developed countries, he added.

The country is investing heavily in Africa, which Murrin calls a "huge opportunity" because it has the best demographics in the world and a big resource pool.

"I think Africa, as a generic theme, is the hottest thing in town," he said.

It's true!

It's very possible we could be or will be in a decline. But it's very hard, even in retrospect, to measure exactly how and when that decline began. I'd be very hesitant to blame it on something like the current health care situation. The irony is that when the article blames the government for our decline, it is doing exactly what it is accusing (when it says "people expect the state to take care of them")... it is attributing too much to the government. I think we need to look toward ourselves and not toward our leaders. A leader can only do so much.

If I had to point to one thing, I would point toward our culture's poor understanding of money and credit (which are really just numerical representations of responsibility and work ethic). For me, the housing/mortgage crisis of the past decade is an incredibly insightful look into how Americans view money and wealth. During the runup of the bubble I could not go ANYWHERE without Joe Schmoe somewhere within earshot saying ".... and then he bought another house, and sold it, and now he's RICH!" I mean seriously, ANWHERE. Movie theaters, restaurants, restrooms. It was the conversation of the hour, and so many people, even people I consider smart, bought it hook line and sinker. Sure, blame the MSM, blame the mortgage industry or the Realtors(TM) or even the gubmint. But people who believe stupid lies worry me even more than liars.

Originally Posted by Blah64

ummm...

America is an empire?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Empire