The fat lady is just clearing her throat now...

**-Lazarus-** · 08-24-12, 07:53 PM

Unusually popular movie...FIRST BOX OFFICE: Anti-Obama Movie #1 - Deadline.com

Famously accurate prediction predicts Romney...
University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

I don't even think it'll be close. Momentum is building.

**MaFioSo** · 08-24-12, 08:00 PM

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

Unusually popular movie...FIRST BOX OFFICE: Anti-Obama Movie #1 - Deadline.com

Famously accurate prediction predicts Romney...
University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

I don't even think it'll be close. Momentum is building.

I will watch it as soon as I can, not sure if "momentum is building".

CNN Poll: Obama 49%-Romney 47% among likely voters – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

May I ask who you will be voting for this November?

**-Lazarus-** · 08-24-12, 08:04 PM

Originally Posted by MaFioSo

I will watch it as soon as I can, not sure if "momentum is building".

CNN Poll: Obama 49%-Romney 47% among likely voters – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

May I ask who you will be voting for this November?

I don't know. I guess I will be voting for Romney, since it looks like Ron Paul isn't a third party candidate. But I'm not happy about it.

**-Lazarus-** · 08-24-12, 08:07 PM

One other thing about the CNN poll... I think it's rigged. I can't prove it, but I think it probably is. I think most of them are. The point is to mold public opinion.

**MaFioSo** · 08-24-12, 08:08 PM

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

I don't know. I guess I will be voting for Romney, since it looks like Ron Paul isn't a third party candidate. But I'm not happy about it.

Really you did look at everything in this thread didn't you? http://www.teamplayergaming.com/news...pocrisy-2.html

I'm curious how can you vote for him? What logic in your mind says that he deserves your vote?

Edit: Or actually let's not make this too difficult, can you just list some good thing about him? Policies of his that you really like?

**MaFioSo** · 08-24-12, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

One other thing about the CNN poll... I think it's rigged. I can't prove it, but I think it probably is. I think most of them are. The point is to mold public opinion.

I don't think it's rigged. As you know you can still win the presidency without winning the popular vote, it is the electoral votes that matter. I think it was Bush who one without winning the popular vote against Gore. Also according to your link, they have successfully predicted the winner since 1980, still I don't think the fat lady has sang just yet.

**hannibal** · 08-24-12, 08:19 PM

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

Unusually popular movie...FIRST BOX OFFICE: Anti-Obama Movie #1 - Deadline.com

Famously accurate prediction predicts Romney...
University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

I don't even think it'll be close. Momentum is building.

Wow, we haven't even gotten through the conventions and no one is paying attention, but your calling this one. Nice.

-H

PS I'll just leave this here:
Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

**Fovezer** · 08-24-12, 08:21 PM

Lol at that "prediction." Minnesota going for Romney?! A state that hasn't voted for a Republican since 1972? It immediately lost any and all credibility with me. It takes either a certain level of stupid or badly flawed methodology to come to that conclusion.

And from Nate Silver:
A Denver Post reporter asked me about this U. of Colorado election model. (1/5)
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...94289116672000

It's late, so I'll be blunt: I saw their paper and I think there are glaring problems with their methodology. (2/5)
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...94335472115713

The U. of Colo. model fits the equivalent of 7 unknowns to 8 elections. That's not a good idea. (3/5)
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...94388429402112

The Colo. model also assumes huge effects from unemployment if incumbent is a Dem., but none if he's GOP. Hard claim to defend. (4/5)
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...94455739609088

If you want a "fundamentals" model that shows Romney winning, the Hibbs model is a lot more sensible. http://bit.ly/SqgfnH (5/5)
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...94539512434689

Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...96899911528448

Another huge flaw with that U. Colorado election model: it actually assumes a Dem incumbent does WORSE when state income growth is higher.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...78247336407040

So, for example, the U. Colo. model has Obama's vote dropping off MORE in Ohio because its economy is relatively good.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...78793296355328

It's surprising how often studies that fail a sanity check can pass peer review.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/...80283612274688

Again, LOL at this "prediction."

**deathgodusmc** · 08-24-12, 08:57 PM

Originally Posted by MaFioSo

Really you did look at everything in this thread didn't you? http://www.teamplayergaming.com/news...pocrisy-2.html

I'm curious how can you vote for him? What logic in your mind says that he deserves your vote?

Edit: Or actually let's not make this too difficult, can you just list some good thing about him? Policies of his that you really like?

Logic would imply there is a logical choice. That we do not have. Obama had his time for "change" and the only thing he did was fuck it up at every turn. Now its time for more change.

**deathgodusmc** · 08-24-12, 09:00 PM

Originally Posted by Fovezer

Lol at that "prediction." Minnesota going for Romney?! A state that hasn't voted for a Republican since 1972? It immediately lost any and all credibility with me. It takes either a certain level of stupid or badly flawed methodology to come to that conclusion.Again, LOL at this "prediction."

Like it or not they have been correct thus far. So i would save the lol until after.