Thread: RCP Polling Average is painting a sad picture for President Obama today, 10/12/12...

And that last little uptick for Romney at the end is today after the VP debate. And let's not forget that most of these polls are skewed in Obama's favor to start with. I was right about my prediction regarding the first debate. I said this would be where historians cite the turning point in the election for Romney. It is.

Now we see this:

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map



Based on the polling numbers by state, Real Clear Politics has changed their electoral map, with Obama only holding a "solid" hold on only 9 states. States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada are now toss-ups.

I predicted a landslide for Romney. I promise not to gloat when I am correct.

I still have hope for this country.

I don't really like either, but I would have a hard time believing a state like Michigan would vote Romney until it actually happens. Too many union workers and people below the poverty line that view Obama as the right answer IMO.

Originally Posted by Fovezer

What happened to "OMG, all the polls are wrong!!1!" None of the current polls out have taken the VP debate into their samples yet. But I have noticed an interesting dynamic, where the national polls seem to have moved slightly towards Romney but the state polls seem to be holding pretty steady. MI and PA are not tossups, those are solid Obama. Obama still ahead in WI, IA, OH, and NV. All those states alone still give Obama 277 electoral votes. VA, FL, CO, and NH are true toss up states and could go either way. Although the race has predictably tightened, it's still looking good for Obama.

If Romney wins, it will be a squeaker. But he won't, so whatever.



Michigan will go for Obama, there is no doubt about that. It's not a tossup. The only reason it got knocked into the "toss up" category on RCP is because of polls from shitty polling firms like Gravis and Baydon/Foster. The opposition to the auto bailout sunk any chance he might of had here.

Did you even read my post? The polls ARE wrong. They are skewed for Obama. But Romney is still leading anyway. Which means he is leading by even more than they indicate.

Just remember one word Fov.

Landslide.

Originally Posted by WickedTribe

What will you do if you're wrong?

If I'm wrong about Romney winning, I will concede that I was completely wrong. I will also be forced to evaluate my feelings about this country depending on how bad Obama wins.

If I'm wrong about a landslide victory but Romney still wins, I will express my surprise that it was so close, admit I was wrong about my landslide prediction and prepare to watch our country begin recovering over the next 4 years, and enjoy watching you suck it.

Oh, and if I'm right (which I am very confident that I am), I will not expect you or any other liberal to concede that I might know a bit more about politics than you do, because that would be a miracle...

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

Oh, and if I'm right (which I am very confident that I am), I will not expect you or any other liberal to concede that I might know a bit more about politics than you do, because that would be a miracle...

In this case, it would appear that you have some sort information from your future self. If so, could you please have your future self to ask my future self about whether I should go with "the 9-iron" or "the bowl of Jello". Future me will know what I mean.