Thread: LANDSLIDE? Hidden Vote?

Originally Posted by MaFioSo

Sigh....I can't believe I am engaging in this conversation. You do realize that Bush also had many opportunities to go after him and he passed them up. Why? Well maybe (I'm really not sure) it's because there are repercussions for being wrong. If you make that call and you are wrong, it sets back the entire operation. It lets the opposition know exactly where you have tracked them to, and then they make adjustments accordingly, so it's like starting all over. You have work to regather all the new intelligence about where he might be all over again.

We aren't talking about Bush. Bush hasn't campaigned to be President in almost 8 years. I would say I understand the concepts of tactical awareness and how this kind of operation should work as well as any former military who worked under a TS security clearance in the Middle East. I have no idea what your qualifications are so I will reserve judgment.

That said, um, yeah. President Obama exhibited poor leadership, even in that circumstance.

Originally Posted by Fovezer

It was a carbon copy of Operation Wide Receiver. It was the same damn thing. Both were Arizona-based ATF gunwalking operations to try and track the movement of weapons within Mexican cartels. Both ended badly. If you want to be mad about one, you have to be mad about both. There is no other choice.
ATF gunwalking scandal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And you wouldn't know an honest debate if it smacked you on the ass and called you Susie.

No. It wasn't a carbon copy. And if you are trying to say two wrongs make a right, then your argument is weak. Incredibly weak. Because as I said, Bush isn't running for President. Obama is.

Originally Posted by -Lazarus-

I see you rocking in a corner, in a fetal position, repeating these talking points you keep spewing over and over to comfort yourself. Reality's a bitch.

Originally Posted by Fovezer

Like I said, November 6th is going to be fun.

lol You guys have talked so much trash back and forth to each other. You are both so sure as to who the next president will be, but come November 6th one of you will be wrong. So yes November 6th will be fun, for the rest of us who are going to grab our popcorn and see if the loser has the balls to come back here and admit he was wrong.

Originally Posted by MaFioSo

see if the loser has the balls to come back here and admit he was wrong.

Originally Posted by MaFioSo

lol You guys have talked so much trash's back and forth to each other. You are both so sure as to who the next president will be, but come November 6th one of you will be wrong. So yes November 6th will be fun, for the rest of us who are going to grab our popcorn and see if the loser has the balls to come back here and admit he was wrong.

Look. I made a solid prediction. No one else has, including Fov, with his vague protective whatever it is he says... All we know is Fov predicted that Obama would win. I said Romney would win in a landslide. If I'm wrong I have no problem admitting it. But I'm not. Worst I'll be wrong on if I am wrong at all is the landslide part. Romney will win either way. But I'm not wrong.

And let's not forget I made this prediction when, if I recall correctly, not one of you people on here thought Romney had any chance of winning.

I predicted the first debate would be the turning point and it was. Now Fov is the only dude still on here spouting that Romney doesn't have a chance. All of you know I might be right. But if I'm right or not, the important thing is that Obama leaves the White House. Period.

Some of you also think for some stupid reason that I'm just an extreme right winger. That's not true, but I spend very little time convincing any of you about this because I don't care what you think I think. I only care about one thing. Removing Obama from office. Not just because he is an extreme liberal. Not just because he is a bad example of a democrat. Because he is a horrible President. His time is up.

Originally Posted by Fovezer

All you've ever said is "LANDSLIDE!!1!" That's not a "solid" prediction, that's a lazy pick. I've made specific predictions before, and if you want, I'll do it again: 303 Obama, 219 Romney with FL 29 EVs a pure tossup. Could go either way, so 303/248 or 332/219, but it won't matter since Obama is above 270. You refuse to make any real predictions.

These are the reasons why I think Obama is the heavy favorite:
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
http://election.princeton.edu/
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
US Presidential Election 2012
512 Paths to the White House - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

So my prediction is based completely on the massive polling data we have, which is all pointing one distinct direction. Is it possible for Romney to still win? Yes, but it's small. Now I've already given Romney a better chance than you give Obama. But for Romney to win, he needs all the polls to be wrong. He needs a massive, systematic failure to affect all the pollsters out their showing the same thing.

So that's the difference between us. I base my views on the facts and figures I have before me. If I'm wrong, it means the pollsters were all wrong. It's a possibility, just not very likely. You base you views on nothing but fantasy and what you want to happen, so what does that mean if you are wrong? People that live in their own bubble tend to have a hard time adjusting to reality after it is popped.

I just did a long writeup on why I think Romney will win in a landslide. I've also said that Romney would win virtually every battleground/swing state, and win in a landslide. That's pretty damned specific. I also said that history would record that the turning point in the election for Romney would be the first debate. You responded by laughing at me, insulting me, and calling me names, as usual. I recorded that prediction before the debate even happened. The reversal in the poll numbers was quite dramatic, proving my prediction correct.

Fov, you keep saying that if Romney wins the pollsters will all be wrong. The problem is that the only place where you will see the kind of numbers you keep pointing to is this 538 blog you keep touting. I've looked at them as well as every other source of information I could find, and frankly, at this point to me it looks like 538 is a liberal wish-tank. I like their format on their site but I kind of feel bad for them because their predictions are so far off base. It has to hurt their credibility after this election. At this point, anyone who says it will be a miracle if Romney wins like you keep saying is simply not paying attention to all the polls and other data - they have their head in the sand, as you clearly do.

Now that said, maybe all the polls *are* wrong to a degree, some more than others. The polls are skewed in favor of Obama but not intentionally in some cases at least I think. There are two problems with most of the polls. The biggest problem with the polls in this election is that they assume voter turnout and enthusiasm will be the same for the Democrats as it was in 2008, and they adjust the data accordingly to adjust for expected turnout. The turnout and enthusiasm in 2008 for Democrats was much, much higher than it will be now. It will look more like 2010 did. There are certainly polls that support this. But most pollsters aren't accounting for that. The second problem which has happened more with liberal news organizations polling than anything, is an over sampling of one party over the other when polling. A lot of the polls (CBS, MSNBC, etc.) have sampled 1.3 Democrats for every Republican. This causes a skew toward Obama.

Here's why I won't make a stupid electoral map for you, precisely predicting every state. It's 100% because you are such a dick. No other reason. If I made some map, when I am proven correct about a prediction of a landslide win for Romney but get a couple of states wrong (which I inevitably will), you will focus on that point and try to laugh and say how I was actually wrong. That is just how skewed your views are. And I won't give you the satisfaction. So sit on it and spin. I made my prediction. It's based on personal experience, election history, knowledge of human nature, and the polls. I made it before it was a safe bet. From the first moment after my prediction you have insulted me, derided me, called me names, questioned my intelligence, and his all around attacked me. I am doing this for fun during an election year. I am not a news commentator or paid prognosticator. I don't have to predict anything like you want me to and you don't have to like that. But that's the way it is. It's all recorded right here in there forums, and we'll see who was right.