Thread: Libyan Civil War nears close...well the first one anyways.

It is estimated, that at least 70% of the Libyan Rebels are former insurgents in the Afghanistan and Iraq Campaigns who came home to fight against Ghaddafi's rule. With the use of weapons, logistics, and money from the EU and the United States. Many of these former insurgents were promised power positions or patronage for their service in the civil war from the rebel leadership.

Originally Posted by RepressiveDuck

It is estimated, that at least 70% of the Libyan Rebels are former insurgents in the Afghanistan and Iraq Campaigns who came home to fight against Ghaddafi's rule. With the use of weapons, logistics, and money from the EU and the United States. Many of these former insurgents were promised power positions or patronage for their service in the civil war from the rebel leadership.

Link?

Perhaps you should amend the poll to say 'if' instead of 'when'.

So now you have a power vacuum where a new government must not only develop a new nation state, new political institutions, pay its international debt, and create stability; but also use oil revenue and political positions to keep some very dangerous and very powerful men happy.

Libya is also inhabited by several ethnic tribes that control major areas of the country and were each (under their alliance compact) supposed to share power in the new state, but that's not how Libya works and this rebellion has been fragmented from the start. So the likelihood of a tribal civil war is extremely high following an end of a Ghaddafi-like regime...

Personally. I have no dog in this hunt but I would still would like to see some hard proof backing up your claim that "It is estimated, that at least 70% of the Libyan Rebels are former insurgents in the Afghanistan and Iraq"

Concerning the next step after Gadhafi, I found this article an interesting read.

Rebel government gears up for role of 'main player' in Libya - CNN.com

I will get you the Public International Radio and Al Jazeera's quotes from a respected British Political Scientist shortly...but here's a short article from Britain's "The Telegraph." Note: in the article it states that the commander of the rebels knows 25 men specifically and I know that isnt anywhere close to 70%. Look up his name and you'll find that he's got a long history of transnational insurgency. Also Note: that I have no agenda here either I just study this stuff and want to see what you guys thought.

As to your suggestion, "if" does sound better (don't know how to change it)...And that article is interesting however, I study civil conflict and democratization; and a rentierist state that has just lost a 40yr hold on power usually does not have a fairytale democratic peaceful ending. On the other hand, it would be nice for it to happen in such a strategic country and a people who have suffered torture and extrajudicial killing for decades.

Libyan rebel commander admits his fighters have al-Qaeda links - Telegraph

Wow, someone doesn't have a clue what he is talking about...

Originally Posted by RepressiveDuck

Rebels have marched into Tripoli with fairly little resistance in a surprise offensive today. The Rebel leadership says that they are less than 1 mile from Ghaddafi's Palace and they have killed/captured 4 of his sons who tried to flee to the south. Unfortunately, for us, this leaves a power vacuum among several factions who less than two years ago were fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq against us. And from history, we learn that rebels do not make very good politicians or governors.

So what's next?

They captured 3, and didn't kill any of them. One even manage to escape. And the events in Libya are no where comparable to Afghanistan or Iraq. It's incredibly ignorant to try and make that comparison.

Originally Posted by RepressiveDuck

The first civil war is complete (well just about)....Now the Tribal factions will start their own civil wars if and when a government is formed. And now we have a decision to make, choose a side or stay out??

Evidence? Source? This is bullshit, plain and simple. The tribal differences were played up under Gaddafi, and there is no evidence there will be a tribal conflict. Hell, many of the rebels streaming into Tripoli amid cheers are Berbers from the Nafusa Mountains. I have seen no evidence for any large tribal conflicts.

Originally Posted by RepressiveDuck

It is estimated, that at least 70% of the Libyan Rebels are former insurgents in the Afghanistan and Iraq Campaigns who came home to fight against Ghaddafi's rule. With the use of weapons, logistics, and money from the EU and the United States. Many of these former insurgents were promised power positions or patronage for their service in the civil war from the rebel leadership.

I estimate that you pulled this 100% out of your ass.

Originally Posted by RepressiveDuck

I will get you the Public International Radio and Al Jazeera's quotes from a respected British Political Scientist shortly...but here's a short article from Britain's "The Telegraph." Note: in the article it states that the commander of the rebels knows 25 men specifically and I know that isnt anywhere close to 70%. Look up his name and you'll find that he's got a long history of transnational insurgency. Also Note: that I have no agenda here either I just study this stuff and want to see what you guys thought.

As to your suggestion, "if" does sound better (don't know how to change it)...And that article is interesting however, I study civil conflict and democratization; and a rentierist state that has just lost a 40yr hold on power usually does not have a fairytale democratic peaceful ending. On the other hand, it would be nice for it to happen in such a strategic country and a people who have suffered torture and extrajudicial killing for decades.

Libyan rebel commander admits his fighters have al-Qaeda links - Telegraph

As someone who has been following this revolution closely from the beginning, I can tell you have an agenda and are making up shit to suit that agenda. Are there going to be a handful of extremists? Of course. But to try and imply that a handful of extremists represent the millions of people who are supporting the revolution in Libya is just stupid. There has been zero push by the rebel leadership or by any significant group for any Islamic or extremist government.

In short, read Juan Cole's latest column: Top Ten Myths about the Libya War | Informed Comment

Juan Cole is a liar. The Libyan war is fronted by muslim extremists, afghan and iraq war vets.