Thread: What economic Recovery

Bernanke Says Economic Recovery Close to Faltering - ABC News

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the economic recovery "is close to faltering" and the central bank is prepared to take further steps to support it.


Bernanke offered his grim assessment after the economy barely grew in the first half of the year and it created no net jobs in August. Consumer confidence fell this summer to the lowest point since the recession. Europe's debt crisis has also intensified.


In a speech in Cleveland last week, Bernanke called long-term unemployment a "national crisis" and said Congress should take further steps to address it. Bernanke noted that about 45 percent of the unemployed have been out of work for at least six months — a level previously unseen in the six decades since World War II.

So. This is as they say, not so good. Who has the over/under on whether shit gets better anytime Soon ^TM

Some have been saying this for several years now. It aint over and wont be until they figure out you dont fix the economy by helping big business. All of us small businesses are the engine that drives this thing.

The economy is slowly recovering and Tue unemployment rates support that. What bernake suggested yesturday is that politicians need to come together to keep moving forward or we risk falling back in to a recession. The current economy is more at risk currently than it has been.

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Originally Posted by Hocus Pocus

The economy is slowly recovering and Tue unemployment rates support that.

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How so?

Private payrolls rose by 91,000 according to payrolls processor ADP, above expectations for a gain of 75,000 in a Reuters poll.

August private payrolls were revised down to an increase of 89,000 from the previously reported 91,000.


Employers announced 115,730 planned job cuts last month, more than double August's total of 51,114

On the hiring front, employers announced plans to add 76,551 workers in September, down from 123,076 a year ago, according to the Challenger report.

The increase in total September nonfarm payrolls expected in Friday's Labor Department data is seen being boosted by the return to work of 45,000 striking Verizon Communications workers. However, the underlying labor market trend likely remained weak, with no improvement in the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent and average weekly work hours at 34.2 hours.

In other data Wednesday, applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week, largely reflecting a drop in demand for refinancing loans even as interest rates declined

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 4.3 percent in the week ended September 30.


Employers probably added 60,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists ahead of the Oct. 7 Labor Department figures

“Recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead

Couple different sources. Articles from Reuters, Bloomberg

In other words ... it is soft. Very soft. And "anemic growth" doesn't come close to describing it.

I go to the st.Louis Fred for economic data unemplyment for the us on average was a bit over 10% right now were close to 9%. From an economist standpoint anything above 6% is considered recessionary ( if that's a word) so from an optimistic stand point it has improved. These things take time. unemployment isn't the only way to judge the state of the economy but its a common way.

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Plus in an enviorment based on faith I choose not to be pessimistic like the majority.

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Agreed that it is not the only way, but is a common way. Other ways include overall growth of GPD. Housing market values and trends (including but not limited to new mortgages and new home construction), New construction (not homes), etc.

Additionally, the unemployment rate is ever so slightly misleading in the sense that it doesn't take into consideration any of the people who have stopped looking for work and given up. There's at least another couple percentage points of unemployment just sitting there (literally) and not being reported in the overall unemployment rate.

True but they don't contribute to growth anyways so to consider them would just be excess weight. While you can use housing grow, construction, real gdp, etc these all come from employment. So if there's employment there's growth. Employment for the private sector is based on faith and future expectations of the economy. Obviously if the Outlook is bad there won't be any new hires maybe even lay offs which where we are at today.

Funny how faith and speculation go together. It truly rules the earth.

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Originally Posted by Alundil

Agreed that it is not the only way, but is a common way. Other ways include overall growth of GPD. Housing market values and trends (including but not limited to new mortgages and new home construction), New construction (not homes), etc.

Additionally, the unemployment rate is ever so slightly misleading in the sense that it doesn't take into consideration any of the people who have stopped looking for work and given up. There's at least another couple percentage points of unemployment just sitting there (literally) and not being reported in the overall unemployment rate.

Theres more then a couple percentage points for the increase. How about doubling it from 13.8 million to 24,8 million.