Thread: Hat drop algorithm determined

http://forums.steampowered.com/forum...d.php?t=951207

I posted this in my own forums, but I'll also post here.

Every 15,430 seconds (4 hours, 17 minutes, and 10 seconds) you have a 1.1905% chance to receive a hat. These are the exact values used and is not something that was determined by using data collected from idlers.

I verified this by checking against people who received two hats real close together and the difference in time was divisible by 15,430.

This from Drunken F00l, creator of the idler (please no idler discussion here) and the www.tf2items.com backpack viewer that we are discussing in another thread. So he knows what he is talking about.

So if you played TF2 for 2 hours every day for an entire year, statistically you would end up with two hats on average. OR... playing TF2 for 2 hours a day, it would take you over 13 years (on average) to get all 27 hats. :5 :5 :5 :5 :5

Although this was just posted today:

http://forums.steampowered.com/forum...d.php?t=953086

But it's just looking like wild speculation at this point.

that's not a very big chance haha

i think those other people were just lucky though

Originally Posted by KidWithTheFace

Makes sense, glad they are doing it like this...

Really? Why? You might be the first person I've heard say that.

I don't understand why it makes people mad that they are so rare... If everyone had them, they wouldn't really be all that interesting to wear.

Besides, if you care that much about having all of the hats or a particular hat, a pretty simple solution for getting them is all over every TF2 forum out there.

Originally Posted by AsO|-Special_K_33

Originally Posted by Veovis

Originally Posted by KidWithTheFace

Makes sense, glad they are doing it like this...

Really? Why? You might be the first person I've heard say that.

I also agree with kid. It just makes it exciting knowing that at anytime you can get a hat. For those of you who collected trading cards (sports, comics, etc), it's like trying to get that ultra rare insert card that is at least 1:100 packs.

I don't really agree or approve, since I'm greedy, but I totally see the point. Funny you mention the trading cards because I was gonna say the same thing.

One thing is for sure, there would not be NEARLY this much discussion about the hats if it weren't for this random drop system. I think that even if they do away with it in a few months and let us earn/have/trade the hats, we'll still value the hats that much more for it. They do this kind of stuff to kids all the time with collectibles... my dad always commented on the marketing genius behind the pokemon slogan "gotta catch them all!" I distinctly remember collecting Ninja Turtle cards in 2nd grade, buying pack after pack and compiling 100's of duplicates in the hopes of completing my set. I still remember the crappy gum sticks that came in each pack. I still remember the rarest card of them all, #12: It Began in Japan. In fact...

http://www.ecrater.com/product.php?pid=1830168



Funny thing is, I didn't even really like the Ninja Turtles. I was just a sheep trying to collect something that all my classmates had deemed so cool. I eventually did get #12, and I still have the complete set buried somewhere in a box of childhood leftovers.

Likewise, I don't really think the hats in themselves are that cool... I actually thought they were stupid when I first heard about them. But now I'm caught up in the in the damn herd, following all the other hungry sheep, like a little child again chasing after the last card. Probably haven't had this specific "itch" in a dozen years... really a brilliant idea on Valve's part to make an adult feel this way about something so stupid. But it still pisses me off.

Originally Posted by QuickLightning

Besides, if you care that much about having all of the hats or a particular hat, a pretty simple solution for getting them is all over every TF2 forum out there.

There is no simple solution for getting them all, or even a particular one. Even if you idled 24/7 for an entire year (assuming you're ok with idling), you still probably wouldn't have every single hat (on average, you would have 24 hats total though).

At least with my stupid Ninja Turtle card example from above, I was able to complete my set within a few months of hard work (spending every single dime I had on new card packs... i.e. do something to help my chances).

Depends on how you view it. Taking into account that each spin of the wheel, (every 15,430 played seconds) is independent of the other spins. (((365d*2hr)*60m*60s)/(15430s))*1.1905% does give you, your two hats over the average of a group, but since the chance is so low, the average will range greatly right? Meaning that there are more of the unlucky individuals, who can try and pick the winning ticket out of a pile of 100 tickets, 10000 times and still never win. Which sucks.... because i am sure i fall into the unlucky category, or ill end up with two spy hats... Which im sure is even more likely to happen since ive said it, just to spite me...

But really, your fucked trying to get the hat you want... Its silly that they leaf this to just chance of any hat... sigh....